Split Decision – Iraq and Afghanistan Move in Different Directions

Paul McLeary, WA

The first troops ordered to Afghanistan by Obama in December are on the ground. About 1,500 Marines from Camp Lejeune, NC, left for Afghanistan in mid-December, while 6,200 more Marines from Camp Lejeune and 800 from Camp Pendleton, CA, are leaving in January. Also this month, the Army is slated to send a training brigade from Fort Drum, NY, with about 3,400 members.

In all, about 16,000 U.S. troops will hit the ground in the first few months of 2010, which is about half of the force slated to be sent as part of the new Afghanistan strategy.

The focus of American operations in Iraq now revolves around training and mentoring Iraqi security forces, while the same holds in Afghanistan, with the obvious addition of continuing to fight Taliban and Al Qaeda forces.

Two U.S. brigades are focused on mentoring and partnership with the Afghan National Army (ANA), while 4,000 more trainers are set to deploy in the spring to grow the Afghan army to 134,000 from 92,000 by the end of the year. The goal is a force of more than 200,000.

The goal being to secure major urban centers in the volatile south and east, leaving the increasingly restive north and west in the hands of a handful of NATO allies and the “civilian surge” of American civilian agencies. It’s the “Ink spot” theory of counterinsurgency, the idea that security and services can be provided first in major population centers and then spread to the countryside. As part of the push, civilian advisors and experts (beyond the 1,000 civilians that ship out in January 2010) will begin to open in places like Mazar-e-Sharif and Heart, as well as other spots in the relatively quiet north and west, while U.S. forces battle the Taliban in the south and east.

Significantly, this expanded “civilian surge” is in line with the population-centric counterinsurgency campaign that Gen. Stanley McChrystal, commander of the International Security Assistance Force, has repeatedly said is his focus. The one-two punch of combat forces with civilian agencies is designed to pressure the Taliban while drawing the population closer to the government, in this case being represented by Western government agencies and aid groups.